Root Cause Analysis Slides Root Cause Analysis
Moving Beyond Symptoms to Solutions
Policy Analysis Series | Lesson 01
The "Bad Data" Challenge
"Headline: 90% of students fail because they don't study enough."
Wait a minute...
Where did this come from?
Is "studying enough" defined?
What was the sample size?
Who funded the study?
Is lack of study a cause or a symptom of something else?
Symptoms vs. Root Causes
Symptoms
The visible signs of a problem. They are often what citizens complain about first.
Example:
"The city streets are covered in litter."
Root Causes
The fundamental reason why the problem exists. Fixing this prevents the symptom.
Example:
"Insufficient waste infrastructure and lack of weekly collection in high-density zones."
The Logic Model
Inputs
Resources
Activities
Actions taken
Outputs
Products/Services
Outcomes
Specific Changes
Impact
Long-term Goals
A Logic Model maps the causal chain from what you put in to what actually changes in the world.
Visualizing Complexity: The Fishbone
THE PROBLEM
Policy
People
Process
Environment
Categorizing potential causes helps ensure we don't miss hidden variables.
The Data Hierarchy
Primary Government Sources
Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), GAO, Agency Annual Reports.
Non-Partisan Think Tanks
Brookings, Urban Institute, Pew Research Center, RAND Corporation.
Academic Peer-Reviewed Journals
J-PAL, Journal of Public Policy, Policy Studies Journal.
"In God we trust; all others must bring data."
— W. Edwards Deming
Workshop: The Logic Model Challenge
Root Cause Worksheet Root Cause Toolkit
Policy Analysis Workshop | Exercise 01
Student:
Date:
Part 1: The Fishbone Diagram
Choose a current societal issue (e.g., Rising Urban Rents, Declining Literacy Rates, or Gridlock on the I-95). Identify the visible symptom and then brainstorm causes in the categories below.
The Symptom
Policy/Legal
Social/Cultural
Economic
Environment
Technology
Administrative
Part 2: The Logic Model Challenge
Now, draft a preliminary logic model for a proposed policy intervention aimed at one of the root causes identified above.
Inputs
What resources are needed? (Funding, staff, facilities)
Activities
What will you actually do? (Training sessions, new regulations)
Outputs
What are the immediate, measurable products of these activities?
Short-Term Outcomes
What specific behavior or condition changes in 1-2 years?
Long-Term Impact
What is the ultimate goal? (e.g., poverty reduction, zero hunger)
Critical Inquiry
Explain why your chosen policy targets a root cause rather than just a symptom. What evidence (data source) would you need to prove this link exists?
Data Sourcing Guide The Data Detective
A Policy Researcher's Sourcing Guide
Confidential / Reference
1
The Gold Standard
Government Statistical Agencies
Raw, comprehensive data collected by the state. High authority, generally neutral.
U.S. Census Bureau Demographics, housing, and economic indicators.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Unemployment rates, CPI, wage data.
Federal Reserve (FRED) Macroeconomic trends and monetary data.
Legislative Research Arms
In-depth policy audits and fiscal impacts.
2
Secondary Analysis
Respected Think Tanks
Experts who synthesize raw data into reports. Look for transparency.
Non-Partisan / Centrist Brookings Institution, Urban Institute, RAND.
Right-Leaning Heritage Foundation, American Enterprise Inst (AEI).
Left-Leaning Center for American Progress (CAP), EPI.
The "Red Flag" Checklist
No cited methodology.
Sample size (n) is under 100.
Funded by a specific lobby group.
Graphs use truncated Y-axes.
Pro-Tip: Use "Site:.gov" or "Site:.edu"
When searching on Google, append these operators to filter for government or academic domains immediately. This bypasses media spin and advocacy blogs.
Root Cause Teacher Notes Teacher Guide
Root Cause Analysis & Evidence Gathering
Lesson 01
Instructional Objective
Students will move from identifying "symptoms" (visible problems) to "root causes" (underlying systemic issues) and understand how to source credible data to prove these connections.
Hook: The 'Bad Data' Challenge
Present the "90% of students fail" slide. Ask students to shout out why this statistic is suspect. Focus on:
Definition: What counts as "fail"? One test? The course?
Causality vs. Correlation: Does not studying cause failure, or does a lack of support cause both?
Incentive: Who would benefit from this headline? (e.g., a tutoring company).
Direct Instruction Notes
The "5 Whys" Technique
Encourage students to ask "Why?" five times when they see a problem. Example: Traffic is bad. Why? Too many cars. Why? Public transit is unreliable. Why? Budget cuts. Why? Tax base shifted. Why? Subsidized sprawl. Now we have a root cause.
Logic Model Logic
Emphasize the difference between Outputs (Number of houses built) and Outcomes (Percentage of people housed). Policy success is measured by Outcomes, not Outputs.
Workshop Support: Fishbone & Logic Model
"Walk around the room and look for 'ribs' on the fishbone that are too vague. If a student writes 'Lack of Money,' challenge them: Is it lack of tax revenue, poor allocation, or high administrative overhead?"
Differentiation
Support
Provide a pre-filled list of 10 data sources for them to categorize using the Data Detective guide.
Extension
Ask students to find two conflicting reports on the same issue and identify the methodology differences that led to different conclusions.
Criteria and Alternatives Slides The Art of Choice
Constructing Policy Alternatives and Criteria Matrices
Policy Analysis Series | Lesson 02
The Surplus Showdown
Your city has a $10,000,000 budget surplus this year.
Three groups are lobbying you:
🚗 Commuters: "Pave the potholes!"
🌳 Families: "We need a new park!"
📉 Taxpayers: "Give it back as a rebate!"
How do you decide?
"The role of the analyst isn't to pick the 'best' one, but to provide the objective criteria so the politician can make a choice."
Developing Policy Alternatives
🚫
Status Quo
Doing nothing. This is always an option and the benchmark for all others.
🛠️
Incremental Change
Modifying existing programs. Lower risk, but maybe lower impact.
💡
Structural Change
Creating entirely new systems or markets. High risk, high reward.
A good analysis compares 3-5 viable alternatives.
The Four Pillars of Evaluation
Efficiency
"Will this produce the most output for the least cost?"
Equity
"Is the distribution of benefits and burdens fair?"
Feasibility
"Is there political will and administrative capacity?"
Technical Adequacy
"Will the technology or process actually work?"
The CAM Tool
A visual scorecard for complex decisions.
Alternatives Cost (Efficiency) Fairness (Equity) Political Ease Alt 1: New Park High ($$$) Medium Low Alt 2: Tax Rebate Low ($) High High
Analysis Tip: Use a 1-5 scale or "High/Med/Low" to keep it readable.
Next: Your Municipal Challenge
You will be assigned a city problem. You must generate 3 alternatives, define 4 criteria, and fill your matrix to justify a recommendation.
1
Define
2
Evaluate
3
Recommend
Surplus Showdown Matrix Municipal CAM Workshop
Decision Making in the Face of Scarcity
Policy Analyst Workspace
ID:
Case Study #M2
The Urban Heat Crisis
City records show that the "East Side" neighborhood is 10°F hotter than the "West Side" due to a lack of tree canopy and excess pavement. This has led to a spike in heat-related emergency room visits. You have a fixed budget of $5 Million to address this symptom.
Key Constraint:
Project must be completed within 18 months to meet federal grant deadlines.
Stakeholder Note:
Local business owners are wary of any solution that removes street parking.
Part 1: Defining Alternatives
Alternative A: Status Quo
No new spending. Continue current maintenance levels.
Alternative B:
Alternative C:
Part 2: Criteria-Alternatives Matrix (CAM)
| Alternatives | Criterion 1:
Scale: Use 1 (Worst) to 5 (Best) or L/M/H.
Formal Recommendation
Based on your matrix, which alternative do you recommend to the Mayor? Justify your choice by highlighting the trade-offs you accepted.
Criteria Selection Guide Selecting Your Criteria
A Cheat Sheet for Policy Analysts
Economic & Efficiency
Direct Costs
What is the literal price tag? (Upfront vs. recurring maintenance).
Cost-Effectiveness
How much "impact" do we get per dollar spent?
Opportunity Cost
What other project are we giving up by doing this one?
Political & Social
Equity (Horizontal)
Are people in similar situations treated the same way?
Equity (Vertical)
Does this help those with the greatest need more than those with less need?
Feasibility
Is there a powerful group that will block this? Can it pass a vote?
Administrative
Implementability
Do we have the staff and tech to actually pull this off?
Timeliness
How fast can we see results? (Election cycles matter!)
Legal & Ethical
Constitutionality
Does this infringe on protected rights? Will it be sued?
Privacy
Does the policy require intrusive data collection?
The Analyst's Golden Rule
"Never use more than 5 criteria in a single matrix. Too many variables lead to analysis paralysis. Focus on what truly moves the needle for the decision-maker."
CBA Intro Slides The Bottom Line
Fundamentals of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Policy Analysis Series | Lesson 03
The Impossible Question
How much is a human life worth?
If a safety regulation costs $100M but saves 10 lives, is it "efficient"?
$10,000,000 / Life?
The Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) is a standard number used by agencies (like the EPA or DOT) to decide if regulations are worth the cost.
Current EPA VSL: approx. $10.1 Million
The CBA Framework
Benefits
Increased productivity
Time saved (commutes)
Reduced mortality/morbidity
Environmental preservation
Costs
Capital investment (building)
Operational expenses
Regulatory burden on business
Negative externalities (pollution)
NET BENEFIT = BENEFITS - COSTS
Time is Money: NPV
A dollar today is worth more than a dollar next year.
The Discount Rate
"We use a discount rate (usually 3% or 7%) to calculate the Present Value of future benefits."
Example: A dam costs $100M now but yields $10M in energy every year for 50 years. Is it a good deal?
How do we price the "Priceless"?
Hedonic Pricing
Estimating value based on what people pay for related goods. (e.g., houses near parks cost 10% more; therefore, the park is worth X).
Contingent Valuation
Directly asking people: "How much would you be willing to pay (WTP) in taxes to save the Blue Whale?"
Warning: These methods are controversial and often highly subjective!
Simulation: The High-Speed Rail
You will perform a simplified CBA for a proposed train line between two cities. You must identify costs, monetize benefits (time saved), and decide if the NPV is positive.
Launch CBA Workshop
Infrastructure CBA Worksheet CBA Ledger: Infrastructure Project
Quantitative Policy Analysis Workshop | Exercise 03
NPV Analysis Mode
Project: The "Bayside Bridge"
A proposed bridge to replace a 45-minute ferry ride with a 5-minute drive.
Construction: $500M
Maintenance: $5M/year
Commuters: 10,000/day
Time Saved: 40 min
Step 1: Monetize the Benefits
To compare time to dollars, we must assign a value to an hour of travel time. Assume $25/hour per commuter.
Total Time Saved per Day (Minutes)
10,000 x 40 = 400,000 min
Total Time Saved per Day (Hours)
Dollar Value of Time Saved per Day
Annual Social Benefit (365 days)
Step 2: Calculate the Net Present Value (NPV)
Assume a 5% discount rate. (Note: Present Value = Future Value / (1 + r)^t)
Year Costs (C) Benefits (B) Net (B-C) PV Factor (5%) Present Value 0 (Now) ($500M) $0 ($500M) 1.000 ($500M) 1 ($5M) Benefit from Step 1 0.952 2 ($5M) Benefit from Step 1 0.907
Estimated Project NPV (Year 0-2)
The Analyst's Dilemma
If assigning a value of $25/hr to a commuter's time makes the bridge profitable, but a value of $10/hr makes it a loss—how do you justify your choice of $25? Who benefits from a higher valuation, and who loses?
Ethical Valuation Handout Pricing the Priceless
Ethics and Economics in Valuation
The "Statistical Life" Paradox
The government decides to upgrade a highway guardrail. The upgrade costs $100 Million and is statistically proven to save 5 lives over the next decade.
The Calculation:
$100M / 5 Lives = $20 Million per life saved.
The Dilemma:
If the EPA's current Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) is $10 Million, the analyst must recommend rejecting the upgrade. Is it ethical to put a ceiling on safety?
Contingent Valuation (Willingness to Pay)
How much is an old-growth forest worth? Economists often use surveys to ask citizens: "How much would you pay in extra taxes to keep this forest from being logged?"
The Problem
Rich people have more "willingness to pay" than poor people. Does this mean natural resources in wealthy areas are inherently more valuable?
The Bias
People often overstate what they'd pay in a survey (hypothetical bias) compared to what they'd actually spend at the ballot box.
Analysis isn't just Math. It's Morality.
"Cost-Benefit Analysis is a tool for transparency, but it can also be a tool for exclusion. As an analyst, you must always ask: Whose costs? Whose benefits? And who is left out of the calculation?"
Memo Writing Slides The Power of the Page
Structuring the Professional Policy Memo
Policy Analysis Series | Lesson 04
The "One-Minute" Reality
A Mayor, Governor, or CEO spends an average of 60 seconds reading your memo before making a multi-million dollar decision.
"If they can't find the recommendation in the first 10 seconds, they won't read the rest."
Brevity is Authority
The Skeleton
1. Header
To, From, Date, Subject line (clear and punchy).
2. Exec Summary
The "TL;DR." What is the problem and what is the answer?
3. Analysis
The "Why." Criteria and Alternatives comparison.
4. Recommendation
The specific action to take. No ambiguity.
The Executive Summary: BLUF
Bottom Line Up Front
Don't Do This:
"This memo will explore several facets of urban housing policy, including historical context, current market trends, and a variety of possible interventions that the city might consider in the coming years..."
Do This:
"Urban rents have risen 20% in 12 months. This memo recommends a 2-year tax credit for low-income builders (Alternative B) to increase supply by 5,000 units by 2027."
Style for Decision-Makers
Active Voice
"The policy will reduce costs," not "Costs will be reduced by the policy."
No Jargon
Don't use "heteroscedasticity" if you can say "uneven data variability."
White Space
Use bullet points and short paragraphs. Long blocks of text go unread.
Your Mission: The One-Minute Memo
I will give you a 30-page research report. You have 30 minutes to synthesize it into a single page that a busy Mayor would find useful.
GO!
Memo Skeleton Template To:
[Decision Maker Title/Name]
From:
[Student Name], Policy Analyst
Date:
January 17, 2026
Subj:
[Subject Line - Brief & Action-Oriented]
Executive Summary
The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front). State the core problem in 1 sentence, the main finding in 1 sentence, and your recommendation in 1 sentence.
Background & Context
Briefly explain why we are talking about this now. Provide 2-3 key data points that illustrate the scale of the problem. Avoid history lessons; focus on the current crisis.
Analysis of Alternatives
Explain the trade-offs. Why is your recommended option better than the Status Quo or other alternatives? Reference criteria like efficiency, equity, or feasibility. Use bullet points for readability.
Recommendation
A clear, declarative statement of action. "The City should..." or "We recommend adopting..."
Standard Policy Memo Format v4.2 Confidential - For Official Use Only
Memo Style Guide Memo Style Checklist
The Voice
Active Voice
"The Mayor approved the plan" (Good) vs "The plan was approved by the Mayor" (Bad).
Confident, not Preachy
"Evidence suggests X will happen" vs "I feel like we should do X because it's nice."
Zero Filler
Remove "It is important to note that," "In order to," or "I would like to state."
The Visuals
The "Squint Test"
Squint at the page. Is it a wall of text? If yes, add more white space and bullet points.
Smart Boldfacing
Bold key data points or recommendations so they pop during a quick scan.
Descriptive Subheads
Instead of "Background," try "Current Housing Supply Shortage."
The "Forbidden" Words
Very Utilize Paradigm Synergy Actually Impactful Unprecedented
"Precision is the enemy of confusion. Choose clear, simple nouns and strong, active verbs."
If you can delete a word and the meaning doesn't change...
DELETE IT.
Peer Review Slides The Governor's Desk
Peer Review and Professional Memo Refinement
Policy Analysis Series | Lesson 05
Your New Role: Chief of Staff
Your job is to protect the Governor's time. You will read a colleague's memo. If it's unclear, too long, or poorly argued, you trash it.
Reject
Approve
What are you looking for?
Is the recommendation visible immediately?
Does the data support the claim?
Is it free of jargon?
Is the formatting clean?
Tightening the Logic Chain
Colleague wrote:
"Since many people are unhappy with the commute, we should probably look into building a new lane to help out."
Chief of Staff Revision:
"Current congestion causes a 40% delay during peak hours. Adding a third lane (Alt B) will reduce travel time by 15 minutes per commuter."
Specificity breeds credibility.
The Rules of the Workshop
Rule 1: Objectivity
It's not about if you like the author. It's about if the memo works. Be ruthless but professional.
Rule 2: Specificity
Don't say "Make it better." Say "Move the recommendation to the second sentence of paragraph one."
Final Polish Phase
Header Check
BLUF Scan
Data Audit
White Space
The last 5% of effort makes 50% of the impact.
Professional Memo Rubric Policy Memo Rubric
Standard of Professional Excellence
Mastery Level
Criteria Outstanding (4) Competent (3) Needs Work (1-2) Executive Summary (BLUF) Clear problem statement and recommendation in first 3 sentences. No fluff. Recommendation is present but buried. Problem is slightly vague. No executive summary, or it reads like an academic intro. Evidence & Data Uses specific figures (%, $) from credible sources. Links data directly to claims. Uses data but citations are vague or figures are disconnected from the argument. Argues based on feelings/generalizations without hard evidence. Analysis of Trade-offs Clearly explains why the chosen option is better than others using specific criteria. Lists alternatives but doesn't explain why the recommendation was chosen over them. Only presents one option. No comparison. Writing & Tone Active voice throughout. No jargon. Professional and authoritative. Mostly professional, but contains passive voice or "wordiness." Informal tone, heavy jargon, or significant grammar issues. Visual Layout Excellent use of subheadings, bullets, and white space. "Squint test" pass. Standard paragraphs. Few visual aids. A "wall of text" that is difficult to navigate quickly.
SCORE
Passing Grade: 15+ Points
Memos scoring under 12 require a mandatory "re-brief" (revision and resubmission).
Chief of Staff Review Form Chief of Staff Review
Internal Memo Audit | Form #201
Reviewer Copy
The "Governor's Desk" Test
If you were the Chief of Staff, what would you do with this memo?
Pass to Governor
Minor Revision Needed
Reject & Rewrite
The "Hook" & BLUF
Did you find the recommendation within 10 seconds?
Data Credibility
Identify one data point that was particularly strong/weak.
Logic & Trade-offs
Does the author explain why other options were rejected?
Actionable Feedback
List 3 specific changes the author MUST make to get this to the Governor's desk.
One "Forbidden Word" you found:
Policy Refinement Protocol | Lesson 05 Workshop
