Brinkmanship Facilitation Guide Top Secret
Operation: Brinkmanship
40-Minute Express Protocol
CMC-FAST-40
OCTOBER 1962
Setup
5m
Phase I
10m
Phase II/III
18m
Debrief
7m
I: Discovery (10m)
INTEL PACKETS A
Teacher: Force the disclosure decision by the 5-minute mark.
USA: Secret or Public?
USSR: Deny or Defend?
CUBA: Mass Mobilize?
II & III: Brink (18m)
INTEL PACKETS B
Teacher: Hand out B-2 (Intercept) at 10m to break the deadlock.
USA: Respond to 'Soft' or 'Hard' letter?
USSR: Swap Turkey for Cuba?
CUBA: Push for War or Peace?
Rapid Debrief (7m)
Pressure: How did the 40-minute limit affect your morality?Personality: Which leader's trait caused the final outcome?The Deal: If peace occurred, who actually "won" the negotiation?
Phase Target Decision Point Actual Outcome I Disclose to UN vs Blockade II/III Turkey Swap Agreement
Crisis Command Slides Rapid Protocol
Nuclear
Brinkmanship
40-Minute Simulation
The Clock
In 1962, decisions had to be made in minutes. Today, you have exactly 40 minutes to save the world.
5m Setup | 10m Phase I | 18m Phase II/III | 7m Debrief
DEFCON 2
Imminent Threat Level
The Three Perspectives
Kennedy (USA)
The Measured Strategist. Avoid "Groupthink."
Khrushchev (USSR)
The Impulsive Challenger. Even the score.
Castro (Cuba)
The Revolutionary. Don't be a pawn.
Phase I: Discovery
10 MINUTES
USA Goals
Analyze secret U-2 photos.
Decision: Go public or secret diplomatic channel?
USSR/Cuba Goals
Maintain plausible deniability.
Accelerate site construction secretly.
Phase II: Escalation
9 MINUTES
SITUATION UPDATE
A U-2 plane has been shot down. The U.S. military is demanding an air strike. Khrushchev has sent two contradictory letters.
WILL YOU FIRE OR NEGOTIATE?
Phase III: Resolution
9 MINUTES
Option A: WAR
Launch strikes. Risk global annihilation.
Option B: DEAL
Turkey-Cuba missile swap. Both sides withdraw.
Final Decisions NOW
Post-Crisis Debrief
The Pressure
Did the 40m clock help or hurt peace?
Personality
Whose trait was most influential?
The Deal
Did anyone truly 'win' the crisis?
Leader Dossiers Handout EYES ONLY
Leader Dossiers
Central Intelligence Analysis: Personality & Motivations
CLASSIFICATION: COSMIC TOP SECRET
ARCHIVE REF: 1962-LEADER-PROFILES
SUBJECT NAME: ___________________
ASSIGNED ROLE: ___________________
Subject Alpha: John F. Kennedy (USA)
POTUS-35
Psychological Profile
"A man of reason who fears the irrational."
Wary of military advice after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion.
Intellectually curious; prefers options to ultimatums.
Deeply concerned with "looking weak" in front of Khrushchev.
Core Objectives & Fears
Strategic Goals:
1. Remove Soviet missiles from Cuba.
2. Avoid a nuclear exchange at all costs.
3. Maintain U.S. credibility with NATO.
Primary Fear:
Miscalculation. He worries that a small mistake by a local commander could trigger a war no one actually wants.
Subject Beta: Nikita Khrushchev (USSR)
PREMIER-CCCP
Psychological Profile
"Impulsive, blustering, yet deeply pragmatic."
Seeks to be treated as an equal to the United States.
Feels a personal duty to protect the Cuban revolution.
Prone to emotional outbursts, but fundamentally values survival.
Core Objectives & Fears
Strategic Goals:
1. Deter a U.S. invasion of Cuba.
2. Even the "Nuclear Score" (U.S. has missiles in Turkey).
3. Force the U.S. to respect Soviet power.
Primary Fear:
Humiliation. He cannot afford to back down without a "win" he can show his hardline rivals in Moscow.
Subject Gamma: Fidel Castro (CUBA)
COMANDANTE-CU
Psychological Profile
"Fiercely independent and martyr-ready."
Convinced that the U.S. will never allow Cuba to be socialist.
Values dignity and sovereignty above all else.
Willing to sacrifice everything for the cause of anti-imperialism.
Core Objectives & Fears
Strategic Goals:
1. Ensure the survival of the Cuban Revolution.
2. Prevent a second U.S. invasion (following Bay of Pigs).
3. Gain equal standing in the Soviet-U.S. dialogue.
Primary Fear:
Betrayal. He fears the USSR will make a deal with the U.S. behind his back, leaving Cuba vulnerable.
White House Log Worksheet Fast-Track Decision Log
40-MINUTE SIMULATION
Officer:
Role:
I
Phase I: Discovery (10m)
Key Intelligence Findings:
Your Group's Initial Choice:
II
Phases II & III: Brink (18m)
Response to the 'Intercept' or Ultimatum:
The Final Deal Terms:
Nuclear Risk (Circle 1-10)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Diplomacy Total War
Final Summary
What was the final status of your crisis? (War or Peace)
Reflection: What leader personality trait most influenced the outcome?
Intelligence Briefing Packets Intelligence Briefing Packets
Packet A-1 (USA)
U-2 SURVEILLANCE REPORT
STATUS: CONFIRMED SITE CONSTRUCTION
On Oct 14, U-2 reconnaissance confirmed Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) sites near San Cristobal, Cuba.
Capacity: Missiles can strike Washington D.C., Dallas, and NYC within 15 minutes of launch.
Your Task: Determine your first move. Do you go public or attempt secret diplomacy? Advisers are divided.
Group Notes / Strategy:
Packet A-2 (USSR)
OPERATION ANADYR STATUS
STATUS: DEPLOYMENT ACTIVE
Shipments of R-12 missiles are currently arriving. The Americans are suspicious but have not officially acknowledged the missiles.
Rationale: We must defend Castro and counter the U.S. missiles currently stationed in Turkey.
Your Task: Maintain deniability. If questioned, insist these are purely defensive SAM sites.
Group Notes / Strategy:
Packet B-1 (CUBA)
REVOLUTIONARY DEFENSE
STATUS: BLOCKADE ANNOUNCED
The Americans have announced a "Quarantine." This is an act of war. U.S. troops are massing in Florida for an invasion.
Perspective: The superpowers are playing with our lives. We cannot be traded away like pawns.
Your Task: Pressure Moscow to stay the course. Prepare your people for total mobilization.
Group Notes / Strategy:
Packet B-2 (INTERCEPT)
SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE
DECODED MESSAGE FROM KREMLIN:
"...We are willing to remove the missiles if the U.S. pledges never to invade Cuba and removes its missiles from Turkey. This is our price for peace."
Note to USA (ExComm):
You have this back-channel info. Khrushchev's public message is much more aggressive. Which one do you respond to?
Group Notes / Strategy:
Officer Instructions
DISTRIBUTION: Cut packets along borders. Distribute 'A' packets first. Do not allow cross-team reading unless a 'cable' is sent.
STRATEGY BOXES: Ensure students record their team's initial stance in the provided strategy boxes before starting group discussion.
INTERCEPT B-2: This packet is extremely powerful. Decide if you want to give it to the USA team only, or allow it to be 'leaked' to the Press.
TIMING: Hand out 'B' packets only after the 'Blockade' is announced in Phase II.
