Probability Passport Worksheet Chance Carnival Passport
Rotation Station Data Log
Name:
Date:
1
Station 1: Coin Toss Tussle
Theoretical Chance
P(Heads) =
_____
2
(_______ %)
Experimental (20 Trials)
Heads
Tails
Total:
Total:
Result Calculation
Heads Total
___
20
= _____%
Reflection:
How close were you to 50%? Why might it differ?
2
Station 2: Spinner Showdown
Theoretical Chance
P(Yellow) =
_____
_____
(_______ %)
Prediction (24 spins)
24 x
____
____
=
predicted
spins
Experimental Data
Red
Blue
Green
Yellow
Reflection
Compare results to your prediction:
Passport Page 01
Mystery Block Bag Contents
3 Blue Blocks, 2 Red Blocks, 1 Green Block (6 Total)
3
Station 3: Mystery Block Bag
Theoretical Chance
Theoretical Probability Calculation
P(Red)
2
6
x
P(Blue)
3
6
Theoretical Total:
___
36
=
Reflection:
How did your experimental results compare?
Experimental (36 Trials)
Success (R,B)
Other Outcomes
Experimental Total:
/ 36
4
Station 4: Snack Stand Tree
The Mega Combo Menu
1. Main: Hot Dog, Pizza, Nachos
2. Side: Apple, Fries
3. Drink: Soda, Water, Juice
Total Possible Outcomes
____
How many combos can you build?
Tree Diagram Workspace
Show all branches!
Passport Page 02
Carnival Master Key Answer Guide Master Key
Chance Carnival Answer Guide
Teacher Only
Station 1: Coin Toss Theoretical vs. Exp.
Answers:
P(Heads) = 1/2 or 50%
Expected Results:
Students should get close to 10 out of 20 trials as Heads. Emphasize that experimental results approximate theoretical as trials increase.
Station 2: Spinner Showdown Expected Frequency
Theoretical Answer:
P(Yellow) = 1/4 (25%)
Prediction:
24 × 1/4 = 6
Station 3: Mystery Block Bag Compound Probability
Calculation (Independent):
P(RED BLOCK)
2
6
×
P(BLUE BLOCK)
3
6
=
TOTAL
6
36
(or 1/6)
Station 4: Snack Stand Tree Sample Space
Calculations:
18 Outcomes
3 Mains × 2 Sides × 3 Drinks = 18
Specific Probability:
P(Pizza, Fries, Water) = 1 / 18
Sample Space Partials:
• Pizza-Fries-Soda, Pizza-Fries-Water, Pizza-Fries-Juice
• Pizza-Apple-Soda, Pizza-Apple-Water, Pizza-Apple-Juice
• (Repeat pattern for Hot Dog & Nachos)
Station Setup Guide Teacher Setup Guide
Chance Carnival Operations
Carnival Layout
Divide the class into 4-5 groups. Rotate every 8-10 minutes. Ensure each station has its respective materials pre-sorted and clearly labeled.
Station 1: Coin Toss
Goal:
Calculate P(Heads) first, then flip 20 times to compare.
Materials:
1 coin and a soft-surfaced cup/tray per group.
Station 2: Spinner
Goal:
Predict frequency of Yellow outcomes over 24 spins.
Materials:
4-color spinner (equal quadrants).
Station 3: Mystery Bag
Goal:
Independent events: P(Red) × P(Blue). 36 trials.
Materials:
Opaque bag with 3 Blue, 2 Red, 1 Green blocks .
Station 4: Snack Stand
Goal:
Mega Combo: 18 outcomes. 3-tier Tree Diagram.
Materials:
Menu cards (3 Mains, 2 Sides, 3 Drinks).
Pro Tips for Success
• Differentiation: For Station 4, help struggling students by mapping out one "Main" branch first (6 outcomes total for that branch).
• Station 3: Remind students to **replace** the first block before the second pull! Otherwise, the math changes!
• Signal: Use a clear audible signal to rotate. All data must be logged before moving.
• Calculations: Monitor calculations for Station 1 & 2 before trials begin.
Chance Carnival Slides Chance Carnival
Hands-On Probability Lab
Predict
What SHOULD happen? (Theoretical)
Test
What ACTUALLY happens? (Experimental)
Compare
Do they match? Why or why not?
Likelihood Scale
0%
50%
100%
Impossible
Will never happen
Unlikely
Small chance
Equally Likely
50 / 50 chance
Likely
Good chance
Certain
Will always happen
1
Coin Toss Tussle
Flip a coin 20 times. Record Heads vs. Tails.
Mission:
Calculate Theoretical % first!
2
Spinner Showdown
Spin the spinner 24 times. Record your results.
Mission:
Predict how many Yellows you'll get!
3
Mystery Block Bag
Pull a block, replace it, then pull again. Do this **36 times**.
Mission:
P(Red Block then Blue Block). Multiply!
4
The Mega Combo Tree
Map out a meal with a **Main, Side, and Drink**.
Mission:
Find all possible outcomes!
Carnival Rules
8-10 Minutes
Work with your partner to finish all trials!
Record Every Trial
Data is only good if it's accurate and honest.
Calculate First
Theoretical math happens **before** the testing.
Collaborate
Talk about why your results might differ from theory.