Chance Champions Slides Luck Lab
Mastering the Science of Chance
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Impossible
What is Probability?
Probability is the measure of how likely it is that an event will happen.
Key Question:
"What are the chances?"
The Scale of Chance
Impossible
0
Unlikely
1/4
Equally Likely
1/2
Likely
3/4
Certain
1
Laboratory Check
The sun will rise tomorrow morning.
Certain (1)
A dog will learn to speak English.
Impossible (0)
It will rain in the Sahara Desert today.
Unlikely (1/10)
Flipping a coin and landing on heads.
Equally Likely (1/2)
The Fraction Formula
Favorable Outcomes
(The one you want)
Total Outcomes
(All possibilities)
Example: A bag has 3 red marbles and 1 blue marble.
Red?
3/4
Blue?
1/4
Lab Challenge
If you spin this spinner, what is the probability it lands on Orange?
A) 1/4 (Unlikely)
B) 2/4 or 1/2 (Equally Likely)
C) 3/4 (Likely)
Probability Pro Notes Luck Lab Notes
Reference Guide for Chance Champions
Name: __________________________
What is Probability?
It's the measure of how likely an event is to happen. We use words (Likely) and fractions (1/2) to describe it.
The Probability Line
Impossible
0
Unlikely
1/4
Equally Likely
1/2
Likely
3/4
Certain
1
Probability Fraction
Favorable Outcomes
Total Possible Outcomes
Luck Lab Secrets
0 = Never happens (0%)
1/2 = 50% chance (Even)
1 = Always happens (100%)
Word Meaning Real Example Impossible Zero chance of happening. Finding a live T-Rex at a park. Unlikely There is a small chance, but it probably won't. Snowing in the desert today. Equally Likely Exactly a 50/50 chance of it happening. Flipping a coin (Tails). Likely There is a good chance it will happen. Seeing clouds before it rains. Certain It is 100% going to happen. The sun setting this evening.
Luck Lab Recording Sheet Luck Lab Experiment
Recording Sheet & Analysis
Name:
1
The Spinner Station
R
B
R
G
Probability of landing on Red (R)?
Fraction
Word Choice
Probability of landing on Green (G)?
Fraction
Word Choice
2
The Marble Jar Experiment
In a jar, there are 5 yellow marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 3 green marbles.
Picking a Yellow:
Picking a Blue:
Picking a Red:
Picking Any Marble:
3
Real-World Logic
The sun will rise in the East tomorrow.
A live dinosaur will visit our school today.
Rolling a '7' on a normal 6-sided die.
Luck Lab Reflection:
Explain why an "equally likely" event is represented by the fraction 1/2.
Luck Lab Answer Key Answer Key
Luck Lab Recording Sheet
Teacher Resource
1. The Spinner Station
Probability of landing on Red (R):
2/4 (or 1/2) — Equally Likely
Probability of landing on Green (G):
1/4 — Unlikely
2. The Marble Jar Experiment
(Total outcomes: 5 + 2 + 3 = 10)
Yellow (5):
5/10 (1/2)
Blue (2):
2/10 (1/5)
Green (3):
3/10
Red (0):
0/10
Any Marble (10):
10/10 (Certain)
3. Real-World Logic
The sun will rise in the East:
Certain
Dinosaur visiting school:
Impossible
Rolling a '7' on a 6-sided die:
Impossible
Luck Lab Reflection
Sample Expert Response:
"An equally likely event is 1/2 because it means there are exactly 2 equal possibilities, and the one we are looking for is 1 of them (50%). The probability scale goes from 0 to 1, and 'equally likely' is the halfway point, which is 1/2."
